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Sex Transm Infect 2004;80:i10-i13 doi:10.1136/sti.2004.010207
  • Article

The workbook approach to making estimates and projecting future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics

  1. N Walker1,
  2. J Stover2,
  3. K Stanecki1,
  4. A E Zaniewski1,
  5. N C Grassly3,
  6. J M Garcia-Calleja4,
  7. P D Ghys1
  1. 1The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland
  2. 2The Futures Group International, Glastonbury, Connecticut, USA
  3. 3Imperial College, London, UK
  4. 4WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
  1. Correspondence to:
 Dr N Walker
 UNICEF, New York, USA; nwalkerunicef.org

    Abstract

    This paper describes an approach to making estimates and short term projections of future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. This approach focuses on identifying populations which through their behaviour are at higher risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners. Estimates of the size and HIV prevalence of these populations allow the total number of HIV infected people in a country or region to be estimated. Subsequently, assumptions about the possible level and timing of saturation of HIV prevalence among each population can be used to explore future scenarios of HIV prevalence. The basic structure of the software used to make estimates and projections is described. This software includes a set of consistency and audit checks to help exclude unrealistic projections. The paper also discusses the strengths and weakness to this approach to making estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.

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