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Sex Transm Infect 2004;80:i5-i9 doi:10.1136/sti.2004.010199
  • Article

The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package: a software package to estimate and project national HIV epidemics

  1. P D Ghys1,
  2. T Brown2,
  3. N C Grassly3,
  4. G Garnett3,
  5. K A Stanecki1,
  6. J Stover4,
  7. N Walker1
  1. 1The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland
  2. 2East-West Center/Thai Red Cross Society Collaboration on HIV/AIDS Modeling, Analysis & Policy, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
  3. 3Imperial College, London, UK
  4. 4The Futures Group International, Glastonbury, Connecticut, USA
  1. Correspondence to:
 Dr P D Ghys
 UNAIDS, 20 Avenue Appia, CH-1211 Geneva 27, Geneva, Switzerland; ghyspunaids.org

    Abstract

    This paper describes the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for estimating and projecting HIV prevalence levels in countries with generalised epidemics. The paper gives an overall summary of the software and interface. It describes the process of defining and modelling a national epidemic in terms of locally relevant sub-epidemics and the four epidemiological parameters used to fit a curve to produce the prevalence trends in the epidemic. It also provides an example of using the EPP in a country with a generalised epidemic. The paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the software and its envisaged future developments.

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