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Sex Transm Infect 84:i57-i62 doi:10.1136/sti.2008.029926
  • Supplement

Discrepancies between UN models and DHS survey estimates of maternal orphan prevalence: insights from analyses of survey data from Zimbabwe

Table 3 Determinants of parents reported as deceased at round 1 being reported as alive at a later round, Manicaland census data (1998–2005)
Determinants Maternal orphans Paternal orphans
% No OR (95% CI) p Value % No OR (95% CI) p Value
Type of orphan
    Not a double orphan 35.4 113 1 0.631 11.9 607 1 0.002
    Double orphan 32.1 78 0.86 (0.47 to 1.59) 24.7 73 2.43 (1.35 to 4.39)
Sex of child
    Male child 34.6 110 1 0.686 13.8 347 1 0.709
    Female child 31.8 88 0.88 (0.47 to 1.61) 12.9 342 0.92 (0.59 to 1.43)
Age of child
    0–3 years 47.6 21 1 0.025 19.0 79 1 0.174
    4–7 years 42.2 19 0.80 (0.28 to 2.30) 14.7 191 0.73 (0.37 to 1.47)
    8–11 years 32.7 33 0.53 (0.20 to 1.40) 12.8 329 0.62 (0.33 to 1.20)
    12–15 years 12.9 4 0.16 (0.04 to 0.71) 7.8 90 0.36 (0.14 to 0.95)
Poverty quintile
    1st (poorest) 15.6 32 1 0.134 11.1 135 1 0.736
    2nd 41.2 34 3.78 (1.10 to 12.97) 11.9 126 1.08 (0.50 to 2.32)
    3rd 28.6 56 2.16 (0.69 to 6.72) 15.3 176 1.45 (0.74 to 2.86)
    4th 40.5 37 3.68 (1.10 to 12.38) 15.0 127 1.41 (0.68 to 2.91)
    5th (richest) 36.1 36 3.05 (0.91 to 10.27) 11.7 120 1.06 (0.49 to 2.29)
Type of location
    Subsistence farming area 22.3 94 1 0.009 14.1 320 1 0.030
    Roadside trading settlement 41.5 41 2.46 (1.10 to 5.52) 10.7 168 0.73 (0.41 to 1.31)
    Agricultural estate 48.9 47 3.33 (1.52 to 7.28) 19.4 129 1.47 (0.86 to 2.52)
    Commercial centre 31.3 16 1.58 (0.49 to 5.10) 5.6 72 0.36 (0.12 to 1.04)
Checked birth certificate
    All three rounds 31.1 35 1 0.787 10.3 156 1 0.302
    At least one round 36.5 104 0.97 (0.44 to 2.16) 14.3 435 1.45 (0.81 to 2.61)
    No rounds 30.3 33 0.74 (0.27 to 2.04) 13.2 68 1.34 (0.56 to 3.12)

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