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Sex Transm Infect 84:i63-i70 doi:10.1136/sti.2008.030411
  • Supplement

Evaluation of bias in HIV seroprevalence estimates from national household surveys

Table 3 Potential effects of exclusion of non-household population on the national HIV estimate for adults age 15–49, India, Cambodia, Ghana, Uganda, Lesotho
Projected population in survey year % population (15–49) Projected population (15–49) HIV prevalence No of HIV+ in population (15–49) Estimated HIV prevalence
India 2005–6
Scenario A (baseline)
Population living in households 1 101 648 431 53.18% 585 804 092 Svy Est 0.28% 1 640 251
Non-household population 10 538 569 53.18% 5 603 908 NHH%  =  Svy% 0.28% 15 691
Total population 1 112 187 000 53.18% 591 408 000 1 655 942 0.28%
Scenario B
Population living in households 1 101 648 431 53.05% 584 381 936 Svy Est 0.28% 1 636 269
Non-household population 10 538 569 66.67% 7 026 064 NHH%  =  10*Svy% 2.80% 196 730
Total population 1 112 187 000 53.18% 591 408 000 1 832 999 0.31%
Scenario C
Population living in households 1 101 648 431 52.97% 583 504 073 Svy Est 0.28% 1 633 811
Non-household population 10 538 569 75.00% 7 903 927 NHH%  =  20*Svy% 5.60% 442 620
Total population 1 112 187 000 53.18% 591 408 000 2 076 431 0.35%
Cambodia 2005
Scenario A (baseline)
Population living in households 13 056 114 50.40% 6 580 282 Svy Est 0.62% 40 798
Non-household population 271 833 50.40% 137 004 NHH%  =  Svy% 0.62% 849
Total population 13 327 947 50.40% 6 717 285 41 647 0.62%
Scenario B
Population living in households 13 056 114 50.06% 6 536 054 Svy Est 0.62% 40 524
Non-household population 271 833 66.67% 181 231 NHH%  =  10*Svy% 6.20% 11 236
Total population 13 327 947 50.40% 6 717 285 51 760 0.77%
Scenario C
Population living in households 13 056 114 49.89% 6 513 411 Svy Est 0.62% 40 383
Non-household population 271 833 75.00% 203 875 NHH%  =  20*Svy% 12.40% 25 280
Total population 13 327 947 50.40% 6 717 285 65 664 0.98%
Ghana 2003
Scenario A (baseline)
Population living in households 18 382 204 48.60% 8 933 751 Svy Est 2.16% 192 969
Non-household population 19 982 48.60% 9711 NHH%  =  Svy% 2.16% 210
Total population 18 402 186 48.60% 8 943 462 193 179 2.16%
Scenario B
Population living in households 18 382 204 48.58% 8 930 140 Svy Est 2.16% 192 891
Non-household population 19 982 66.67% 13 322 NHH%  =  5*Svy% 10.80% 1439
Total population 18 402 186 48.60% 8 943 462 194 330 2.17%
Scenario C
Population living in households 18 382 204 48.57% 8 928 476 Svy Est 2.16% 192 855
Non-household population 19 982 75.00% 14 987 NHH%  =  10*Svy% 21.60% 3237
Total population 18 402 186 48.60% 8 943 462 196 092 2.19%
Uganda 2004–5
Scenario A (baseline)
Population living in households 26 172 937 42.30% 11 071 153 Svy Est 6.38% 706 340
Non-household population 423 793 42.30% 179 264 NHH%  =  Svy% 6.38% 11 437
Total population 26 596 730 42.30% 11 250 417 717 777 6.38%
Scenario B
Population living in households 26 172 937 41.91% 10 967 874 Svy Est 6.38% 699 750
Non-household population 423 793 66.67% 282 542 NHH%  =  2*Svy% 12.76% 36 052
Total population 26 596 730 42.30% 11 250 417 735 803 6.54%
Scenario C
Population living in households 26 172 937 41.77% 10 932 572 Svy Est 6.38% 697 498
Non-household population 423 793 75.00% 317 844 NHH%  =  4*Svy% 25.52% 81 114
Total population 26 596 730 42.30% 11 250 417 778 612 6.92%
Lesotho 2004
Scenario A (baseline)
Population living in households 1 866 354 50.90% 949 974 Svy Est 23.20% 220 394
Non-household population 7913 50.90% 4028 NHH%  =  Svy% 23.20% 934
Total population 1 874 267 50.90% 954 002 221 328 23.20%
Scenario B
Population living in households 1 866 354 50.83% 948 726 Svy Est 23.20% 220 104
Non-household population 7913 66.67% 5276 NHH%  =  1.5*Svy% 34.80% 1836
Total population 1 874 267 50.90% 954 002 221 940 23.26%
Scenario C
Population living in households 1 866 354 50.80% 948 067 Svy Est 23.20% 219 952
Non-household population 7913 75.00% 5935 NHH%  =  2*Svy% 46.40% 2754
Total population 1 874 267 50.90% 954 002 222 705 23.34%

  • NHH: non-household; Svy: survey; Est: estimate.

  • Census data on the size of total population, size of non-household population and proportion of adults in the national population were obtained from India 2001 Census, Cambodia 2004 Inter-Censal Survey, Ghana 2000 Census, Uganda 2002 Census, Lesotho 2006 Census.

  • In India, the actual proportion of non-household adults in the census was 56.15%, much lower than 66.67% and 75.00% assumed in scenarios B and C.

  • In Ghana, the estimate of non-household population refers to homeless population only.

  • In Lesotho, the estimate of non-household population refers to institutional population only.

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