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Epidemiology poster session 4: Methodological aspects: Neighbouring / mapping
P1-S4.14 Does core theory apply in rural environments?
  1. D Gesink1,
  2. A Sullivan1,
  3. T Norwood2,
  4. M Serre3,
  5. W Miller3
  1. 1University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
  2. 2Cancer Care Ontario, Canada
  3. 3University of North Carolina, , Chapel Hill, USA


Background The expansion of core theory to include geographically defined core areas of elevated infection has been based primarily on spatial investigations into sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in large urban areas. It is uncertain whether core theory is applicable for rural environments. Our objective was to evaluate the concept of geographical core areas for gonorrhoea and syphilis in North Carolina, a rural state with urban pockets.

Methods We analysed geomasked gonorrhoea and syphilis cases reported to the North Carolina State Health Department's sexually transmitted disease surveillance program from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2007 for gonorrhoea and from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2007 for syphilis. Incident gonorrhoea and syphilis rates were estimated using census tract level population estimates for the total North Carolina population from the US census. Rates were mapped by census tract and quarter. Rurality was measured at the census tract using two different definitions: percent rural and rural-urban commuting area (RUCA). RUCAs were used to classify North Carolina census tracts into rural, small town, micropolitan, or urban. SatScan was used to identify spatiotemporal clusters of significantly elevated rates of infection. Clusters were classified as outbreak or core based on duration. Clusters lasting the entire study period were considered potential core areas, while clusters of shorter duration were considered outbreak areas. Clusters were overlaid on maps of rurality and qualitatively assessed for correlation.

Results On average, gonorrhoea rates are low in the western mountains and higher in the eastern coastal part of the state. Most of the clusters were located in urban RUCAs or very low percent rural. Clusters for rural and small town RUCAs were of short duration and usually covered several census tracts and sometimes more than one county. Consequently, they were considered outbreak areas rather than core areas. Similar results were found for syphilis.

Conclusions We found that core areas of elevated STIs were limited to the urban centers in rural environments. Significant clusters of infection in rural environments appear to be due to outbreaks. Rural environments may have core areas but not enough infection to sustain ongoing transmission. Bridge contacts may be more important for STI transmission in rural environments.

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