Article Text
Abstract
Background The Global Plan Towards the Elimination of New HIV Infections among Children and Keeping Their Mothers Alive aims to reduce by 2015 the number of new infections in children, in 22 priority countries, by at least 90% from 2009 levels. Mathematical models, such as Spectrum, are used to estimate national and global trends of the number of infants infected through mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). However, other modelling exercises have also examined MTCT under different settings. MTCT probabilities applied in models to populations that are assumed to receive antiretroviral interventions need to reflect the most current risk estimates.
Methods The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections held a consultation to review data on MTCT probabilities. Published literature, recent conferences and data from personal communications with principle investigators were reviewed. Based on available data, peripartum and postnatal transmission probabilities were estimated for different antiretroviral drug regimens and maternal CD4 levels including for women with incident infection.
Results Incident infections occurring during pregnancy are estimated to be associated with a 30% probability of MTCT; incident infections during breast feeding lead to a 28% probability of postnatal MTCT. The 2010 WHO recommended regimens (Options A or B) are estimated to be associated with a 2% peripartum transmission probability and 0.2% transmission probability per month of breast feeding. Peripartum and postnatal transmission probabilities were lowest for women who were taking antiretroviral therapy before the pregnancy namely 0.5% peripartum and 0.16% per month of breast feeding, respectively.
Discussion These updated probabilities of HIV transmission (applied to Spectrum in April 2011) will be used to estimate new child HIV infections and track progress towards the 2015 targets of the Global Plan.
- Hiv
- Antenatal Hiv
- Antiretroviral Therapy
- Children
- Prevention
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Supplementary materials
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Footnotes
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Contributors NR and MM reviewed the data, developed the tables and drafted the manuscript. RB, LK, TC and LM reviewed the data and the manuscript.
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Disclaimer N Rollins is a staff member of WHO. The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy or views of WHO.
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Competing interests None.
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Provenance and peer review Commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
Open Access This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/