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Longitudinal Study of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Infection Using Viral Dynamic Modeling
  1. Catherine M. Crespi (ccrespi{at}ucla.edu)
  1. University of California Los Angeles, United States
    1. William G. Cumberland (wgc{at}ucla.edu)
    1. University of California Los Angeles, United States
      1. Anna Wald (annawald{at}u.washington.edu)
      1. University of Washington, United States
        1. Lawrence Corey (lcorey{at}u.washington.edu)
        1. University of Washington, United States
          1. Sally Blower (sblower{at}mednet.ucla.edu)
          1. Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, United States

            Abstract

            Objectives: Rates of reactivation of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) change over time and these changes affect transmission and clinical management strategies. We conducted a longitudinal study of HSV-2 infection to quantify rates of change in HSV-2 reactivation, mucosal shedding and recurrences of genital lesions, using a newly available model of HSV within-host dynamics.

            Methods: A cohort of 18 women was studied at two time periods spaced two years apart. The cohort provided daily mucosal swabs for HSV PCR analysis for 10 weeks during each time period and recorded recurrences in diaries. We fit the model of HSV dynamics to the mucosal shedding data using Bayesian methods to produce estimates of HSV reactivation, shedding and longitudinal rates of change. The model was validated using a separate group of 67 individuals.

            Results: According to the viral dynamic modeling results, rates of HSV-2 reactivation from latency in the ganglia varied more than tenfold among the women, and were estimated to be >10% higher than rates of mucosal shedding episodes for many individuals. The mucosal shedding associated with each reactivation typically lasted 1-3 days. Reactivation frequency was estimated to be declining by 3 reactivations/yr on average. The median number of recurrences, based on patient diaries, declined from 6.8/yr to 2.1/yr over the 2-year period.

            Conclusions: Rates of HSV-2 reactivation, shedding and recurrence generally decline over time but remain high in some individuals 4-5 years after primary infection. Viral dynamic modeling provides quantification of HSV infection that cannot be obtained by other methods.

            • genital herpes
            • herpes simplex virus
            • longitudinal study
            • mucosal shedding
            • viral dynamic modeling

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