Table 1

Parameters specifying the effect of male circumcision on the rate of HIV transmission (ranges used in the uncertainty analysis are presented in table S1 in the online technical appendix)

Parameter descriptionValueSource
Mean duration of wound healing period14 days (95% healed within 6 weeks).34
Change in the rate of female-to-male HIV transmission before wound is healed versus before circumcisionIncreases 3-fold16
Change in rate of HIV male-to-female HIV transmission before wound is healed versus before circumcisionIncreases 3.5-fold17
Proportion of men who remain sexually active during the wound healing period13%16
Change in rate of female-to-male HIV transmission after the wound has healed versus before circumcisionDecreases by 65%35
Change in rate of male-to-female HIV transmission before 2 years after the operation versus before circumcisionNo effect17
Change in rate of male-to-female HIV transmission from 2 years after the operation versus before circumcisionWe estimated this after performing a meta-analysis of data from the two studies among HIV sero-discordant couples that measured this effect18 19