Objective: To describe the rate of development of immunodeficiency in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and to relate this to the risk of death.
Design: Inception cohort followed up for up to 12 years from HIV seroconversion until January 1, 1992.
Setting: A regional hemophilia center based in a major teaching hospital.
Patients: All 111 patients with hemophilia who seroconverted to HIV-1 between 1979 and 1985 were registered at the center. Patients have been closely followed up clinically and immunologically.
Outcome measures: Development of immunodeficiency, defined by a CD4 lymphocyte count falling beneath 0.20 and 0.05 x 10(9)/L, and death.
Results: Kaplan-Meier estimates suggest that almost half (46%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 26% to 66%) of patients alive 12 years after seroconversion will have a CD4 lymphocyte count that has remained above 0.05 x 10(9)/L. Thirty-five percent (95% CI, 22% to 48%) remain above 0.20 x 10(9)/L. Thirty-seven patients died of HIV-related causes, and there was a 52% probability (95% CI, 35% to 69%) of HIV-related mortality by 12 years from seroconversion. Mortality risk was closely associated with severe immunodeficiency. There was only a 15% chance (95% CI, 6% to 25%) of HIV-related death occurring before a CD4 count of below 0.05 x 10(9)/L had been reached. There was an average of one HIV-related death per 96.7 patient-years of observation before the CD4 count had fallen below 0.05 x 10(9)/L, as compared with one death per 2.5 patient-years of observation after the CD4 count had fallen below this level (P < .0001).
Conclusions: In patients with HIV infection who are closely followed up, the risk of death is low before the CD4 lymphocyte count has fallen to 0.05 x 10(9)/L, a count many patients remain above up to 12 years after seroconversion.