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Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007
  1. T Brown1,
  2. J A Salomon2,
  3. L Alkema3,
  4. A E Raftery3,
  5. E Gouws4
  1. 1
    Population and Health Studies, East-West Center, Honolulu, HI, USA
  2. 2
    Harvard University Initiative for Global Health, Cambridge, Maryland, USA
  3. 3
    Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
  4. 4
    UNAIDS, Geneva, Switzerland
  1. Tim Brown, East-West Center, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848, USA; tim{at}hawaii.edu

Footnotes

  • Funding: The authors acknowledge the support of UNAIDS for the ongoing development of EPP. National Institute of Child Health and Development grant no R01 HD054511 supported the development of the uncertainty estimation methodologies in EPP.

  • Competing interests: None.

  • Contributors: TB drafted the original version of the paper and incorporated feedback from the other authors. AR and LA developed the Bayesian melding methodologies used in uncertainty estimation and TB implemented these in EPP, developed the uncertainty interface and adapted the algorithms for greater speed. JS documented the limitations of the current Reference Group model and explored possible alternatives to address them. EG assisted in developing the calibration procedures and prepared estimates of the calibration parameters for urban and rural generalised epidemics that are incorporated into EPP 2007. All five are active members of the UNAIDS Reference Group on HIV Estimates, Modelling and Projections that advises UNAIDS on the techniques to be used in EPP.

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Footnotes

  • Funding: The authors acknowledge the support of UNAIDS for the ongoing development of EPP. National Institute of Child Health and Development grant no R01 HD054511 supported the development of the uncertainty estimation methodologies in EPP.

  • Competing interests: None.

  • Contributors: TB drafted the original version of the paper and incorporated feedback from the other authors. AR and LA developed the Bayesian melding methodologies used in uncertainty estimation and TB implemented these in EPP, developed the uncertainty interface and adapted the algorithms for greater speed. JS documented the limitations of the current Reference Group model and explored possible alternatives to address them. EG assisted in developing the calibration procedures and prepared estimates of the calibration parameters for urban and rural generalised epidemics that are incorporated into EPP 2007. All five are active members of the UNAIDS Reference Group on HIV Estimates, Modelling and Projections that advises UNAIDS on the techniques to be used in EPP.

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