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Contributors This letter was conceived and written by its author.
Funding The author thanks the Medical Research Council (grant MR/K010174/1) and the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Modelling Methodology at Imperial College London in partnership with Public Health England (PHE) (grant HPRU-2012-10080) for funding.
Disclaimer The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Department of Health, MRC, NHS, NIHR, or Public Health England.
Competing interests None declared.
Ethics approval Not required.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; internally peer reviewed.
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