Background The objective was to analyze the trends of AIDS cases and HIV infection cases among man who have sex with man (MSM) adults versus young people (15–24 years old) in the period from 2007 and 2017.
Methods A trend study using polynomial regression models carried out with AIDS cases and HIV+ cases compared among MSM adults and young people (15–24 years old) in the period from 2007 to 2017. The annual number of AIDS cases and HIV+ cases was considered as the dependent variable (Y), regarding the studied categories, and time was the independent variable (X), represented by calendar years. The goodness of fit via r² and p <0.05 were used to determine which models and data were most appropriate.
Results 88,025 AIDS cases were analyzed versus 70,753 HIV+ cases in adult men. For AIDS cases a decreasing trend was observed with first-order modeling [Y=−205x+9,235; r²=0.83; p=0.039]; however for HIV+ the trend was increasing [Y=547x+3,147; r²=0.95; p<0.001]. Adult MSM with AIDS (n=20,837) versus HIV+ (N=30,594) were selected. For MSM-AIDS, a significant difference with increasing tendency was observed [Y=47x+1,614; r²=0.58; p=0.050] and for MSM-HIV+ the trend was increasing, but with higher growth rate [391x+430; r²=0.97; p<0.001]. Young MSM (15–24yo) with AIDS (N=3,734) versus HIV+ (N=10,185) were selected. For young MSM-AIDS, there was an increasing tendency [Y=28x+172; r²=0.81; p=0.036] and for young MSM-HIV+ the tendency was increasing and with a higher rate [155x-8; r²=0.96; p<0.001].
Conclusion The total number of cases of HIV+ men exceeded AIDS cases in 2014. However, among MSM-HIV+, the overcoming point was earlier in 2010, and among young people the overcoming point was earlier, before 2007. Among the MSM the trends of HIV and AIDS infection are markedly increasing among young people, highlighting the greater vulnerability of young MSM in Brazil in need of early HIV testing and timely treatment.
Disclosure No significant relationships.
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