RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Estimating the size of key populations for HIV in Singapore using the network scale-up method
JF Sexually Transmitted Infections
JO Sex Transm Infect
FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
SP 602
OP 607
DO 10.1136/sextrans-2018-053747
VO 95
IS 8
A1 Alvin Kuo Jing Teo
A1 Kiesha Prem
A1 Mark I C Chen
A1 Adrian Roellin
A1 Mee Lian Wong
A1 Hanh Hao La
A1 Alex R Cook
YR 2019
UL http://sti.bmj.com/content/95/8/602.abstract
AB Objectives To develop a localised instrument and Bayesian statistical method to generate size estimates—adjusted for transmission error and barrier effects—of at-risk populations in Singapore.Methods We conducted indepth interviews and focus group to guide the development of the survey questionnaire. The questionnaire was administered between July and August 2017 in Singapore. Using the network scale-up method (NSUM), we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the number of individuals in four hidden populations at risk of HIV. The method accounted for both transmission error and barrier effects using social acceptance measures and demographics.Results The adjusted size estimate of the population of male clients of female sex workers was 72 000 (95% CI 51 000 to 100 000), of female sex workers 4200 (95% CI 1600 to 10 000), of men who have sex with men 210 000 (95% CI 140 000 to 300 000) and of intravenous drug users 11 000 (95% CI 6500 to 17 000).Conclusions The NSUM with adjustment for attitudes and demographics allows national-level estimates of multiple priority populations to be determined from simple surveys of the general population, even in relatively conservative societies.