Table 1

A speculative summary of the epidemic trajectory* for various population–pathogen interactions

Population prevalence of sexual behaviours patterns
Pathogen characteristicsSmall high contact, long duration (eg, England)Large high contact, small long duration (eg, India)Small high contact, large long duration (eg, Mwanza)Large high contact, large long duration (eg, Zimbabwe)
*Epidemic trajectories listed in the body of the table are those illustrated in fig 1.
High infectiousness, short duration (eg, H ducreyi)II or III or IIII
Intermediate infectiousness and duration (eg, C trachomatis)I or IIIIIIIII
Low infectiousness, long duration (eg, HIV)IIII or IIIIII