Table 1

Model input parameters used to obtain the baseline Cotonou model fits

Types of model input	Definition of model input		Model inputs for: Male	Female*	Reference for model input value
*If one model input is shown then this is valid for males and females. All parameters with a range associated with it were varied in the uncertainty analysis used to obtain model fits.
†The parameters associated with the POC test were not varied to obtain the initial model fits.
Epidemiological	Average duration of Ng/Ct (months)		6–18		Refs 46–48. Also depends on level of STI treatment
	Average duration of ulcerative STI (months)		2–12		Refs 46–48. Also depends on level of STI treatment
	Average duration between HIV and AIDS (months)		84		Refs 49–51
	Percentage of males circumcised		99%		Ref 19
Transmission probabilities	Probability of HIV transmission per sex act: Male to female:		0.001–0.003		Refs 30, 31, 52
	Female to male:		0.0006–0.0014
	Percentage decrease in female to male HIV transmission probability if circumcised		0–58%		Ref 53
	Probability of STI transmission per sex act: Ng/Ct:		0.10–0.53		Refs 32–34, 54–57
	Ulcerative STI:		0.1–0.5		Refs 32–34, 54–57
	Average Ng/Ct co-factor per sex act		2–8		Refs 4, 58
	Average ulcerative STI co-factor per sex act		3–13		Refs 4, 58
	Sexual transmission multiplicative co-factor during high viraemia phase (for 1.5 months)		10–20		Refs 59–61
	Condom efficacy per sex act		80–95%		Refs 62, 63
Population size and demographic inputs	Initial size of sexually active population		310,000
	Life expectancy in years		51		Ref 64
	Average number of years live in the area		40		Ref 65
Fixed sexual behaviour	Average frequency of partner change: Main sexual partners per 6 months		0.01–0.10	0.01–0.05	Refs 20, 23. No data for casual partners of females in Cotonou, so assumed to be same as males
	Casual sexual partners per 6 months		1.6–2.2
	Average frequency of sex acts in: main partnerships (per month)		4–12		Few data for Cotonou, so inputs given ranges similar to other African settings⁴⁰
	Casual partnerships (per month)		2–5
Sex worker sexual behaviour	Average monthly frequency of clients per FSW		52 (28–104)		Refs 16, 21
Sex worker sexual behaviour	Average duration of sex work in months		24–72		Current FSWs have been sex workers for about 2 years¹⁶
Distribution of sexual activity	Population distribution with respect to level of sexual activity	No partners	20%	14%	Refs 20–23, 65
		Just main partner	49–55%	84%
		Main and casual partner	2–12%	0.8%
		Client of FSW and FSW	13–29%	1.2%
Condom use	Average consistency of condom use: main partnerships per sex act		5–15%		Refs 16, 20, 23
	FSWs with their clients last sex act:	Not reached	60%		Ref 16
	FSWs with their clients last sex act:	Reached	81%		Ref 16
	Distribution of condom use of males and females with their casual partnerships.	None	44–54%	40–80%	Refs 20, 23, 65, 66
		Some	remainder	remainder
		All	21–29%	1–11%
STI treatment of FSWs at SIDA-2 clinic	Coverage of STI screening among FSW		12–15%		200–250 SWs reached every month¹⁶ (250/1900 = 13.2% per month)
	Sensitivity of modified syndromic management (SM) or POC test	Ng/Ct	48% (SM), 50–80% (POC)†		Ref 8. Assume treat all GUD but those caused by HSV-2 are not cured
		GUD	100%
	Specificity of modified syndromic management (SM) or POC test	Ng/Ct	75% (SM), 95% (POC)*
		GUD	100%
	Effectiveness of treatment regimen	Ng/Ct	95%		Most STI cases treated effectively except those due to HSV-2.¹⁶
	Effectiveness of treatment regimen	GUD	35–56%
	Cost of POC test for Ng/Ct (2004 $US)		1–4†		No test currently available
STI treatment at public and private clinics	Percentage of STI cases that never have symptoms		10–35%	10–35%	81% of clients with Ng/Ct and TV were asymptomatic.²⁸ Health dimensions of sex and reproduction.⁶⁷
	Percentage of males and females with symptoms that attend the clinic per month		46–51% (39% to private clinic)		46% of males sought health services if had STI.²⁹ When clients had STI, 12% went to public clinic and 39% to private clinic.²⁸ Few data on females so assumed same as males
	Percentage of individuals with STI symptoms at clinic that don’t have an STI		50–80%	40–80%	Greater than 47% of men and 36% of women with symptoms had no STI at health clinic⁷
	Sensitivity of syndromic algorithm	Ng/Ct	92%	87%	For individuals with Ng/Ct symptoms at public health.⁷ Assume all cases of GUD are treated.
	Sensitivity of syndromic algorithm	GUD	100%	100%
	Specificity of syndromic algorithm	Ng/Ct	60.3%	42%
	Specificity of syndromic algorithm	GUD	100%	100%
	Effectiveness of treatment regimen	Ng/Ct	50–90%		Michel Alary personal communication: 90-95% of STDs treated correctly in SIDA-2 supported clinics and 50% otherwise. HSV-2 not curable
	Effectiveness of treatment regimen	GUD		20–56%