Table 2

 Example application of heuristic rules to obtain plausibility bounds for estimates of HIV/AIDS in a country with a stable, generalised HIV epidemic

Best estimatePlausibility boundsRelative value
MinusPlus
Good surveillance system, high HIV prevalence
16.5%(13.5%–20.1%)Adult prevalence18%22%
69 400(50 000–97 000)Adult deaths28%40%
95 000(60 000–150 000)New adult infections37%58%
1.8%(1.2%–2.7%)Child prevalence35%53%
20 200(13 600–30 000)Child AIDS deaths33%49%
24 000(16 600–34 500)New child infections31%43%
Average surveillance system, low HIV prevalence
4.2%(1.7%–9.9%)Adult prevalence59%136%
78 400(40 000–153 000)Adult deaths49%95%
123 600(33 000–465 000)New adult infections73%276%
0.5%(0.2%–1.3%)Child prevalence62%160%
26,200(10 200–67 300)Child AIDS deaths61%157%
34 300(13 400–86 300)New child infections61%152%