Sensitivity analysis model scenarios of simulated HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence in Cotonou and Ndola in 1997 for selected model parameters
| Parameter | Cotonou | Ndola | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIVp F | HIVp CSW | NGp F | NGp CSW | HDp F | HDp CSW | HIVp F | HIVp CSW | NGp F | NGp CSW | HDp F | HDp CSW | |
| ↑Represents doubling default value and ↓ represents halving default value unless otherwise noted. | ||||||||||||
| CSW, commercial sex worker; F, female; HIVp, HIV prevalence; HDp, chancroid prevalence; NGp, gonorrhoea prevalence. | ||||||||||||
| *High Cotonou = 20% (1990), 40% (1995); low Cotonou and Ndola = 5% (1990), 10% (1995), high Ndola = 20% (1990), 50% (1995). | ||||||||||||
| †High Cotonou = 20% (1990), 40% (1993), 80% (1995); low Cotonou = 5% (1990), 10% (1993), 20% (1995); high Ndola = 20% (1990), 50% (1993), 70% (1995); low Ndola = 5% (1990), 10% (1993), 15% (1995). | ||||||||||||
| ‡High Cotonou = 20% (1993), 60% (1995); low Cotonou = 5% (1993), 20% (1995); low Ndola = 20% (1993), 50% (1995); low Ndola = 5% (1993), 10% (1995). | ||||||||||||
| ¶Probability of abstaining from sex for males with chancroid, default = 50%. | ||||||||||||
| Data | 3.4 | 55 | 0.9 | 12 | NA | NA | 31.9 | 69 | 2.3 | 15 | NA | NA |
| Default model projection | 3.1 | 51.5 | 0.4 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.7 | 65.4 | 3.8 | 17.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| STI cofactors | ||||||||||||
| ↑ | 10.6 | 84.3 | 0.3 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.9 | 92.4 | 3.6 | 18.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| ↓ | 0.6 | 14.6 | 0.4 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 39.0 | 4.4 | 19.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Ulcerative cofactors | ||||||||||||
| ↑ | 5.3 | 71.0 | 0.4 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.6 | 83.4 | 3.6 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| ↓ | 1.8 | 37.0 | 0.4 | 13.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.9 | 45.5 | 4.3 | 19.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Lack of circulating cofactor HIV (default = 2) | ||||||||||||
| ↑ = 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 31.5 | 68.4 | 3.9 | 18.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| ↓ = 1.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 29.5 | 66.4 | 3.9 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Lack of circulating cofactor all (default = 2) | ||||||||||||
| ↑ = 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 41.0 | 81.7 | 2.9 | 15.5 | 0.8 | 5.7 |
| ↓ = 1.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 26.9 | 61.9 | 4.2 | 19.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Condom use general population* | ||||||||||||
| ↑ | 2.5 | 44.5 | 0.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 58.3 | 1.4 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ↓ | 3.4 | 57.1 | 0.6 | 18.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.2 | 69.2 | 7.0 | 28.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Condom use CSWs† | ||||||||||||
| ↑ | 2.7 | 41.9 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.1 | 58.9 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ↓ | 3.3 | 60.6 | 1.0 | 37.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 67.1 | 4.6 | 24.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| CSW screening frequency↓ = 6 m | 3.1 | 54.3 | 0.9 | 36.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.9 | 67.9 | 5.0 | 41.8 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| CSW treatment coverage‡ | ||||||||||||
| ↑ | 3.0 | 51.2 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.3 | 64.8 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| ↓ | 3.1 | 52.5 | 0.6 | 23.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.7 | 66.1 | 4.6 | 30.8 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| Probability of no sex HD¶ 0 | 2.9 | 50.2 | 0.5 | 16.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.2 | 82.1 | 3.7 | 19.7 | 0.7 | 3.9 |
| HDp ↑ | 4.1 | 55.2 | 0.4 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.6 | 92.2 | 3.5 | 18.7 | 2.1 | 12.8 |