Table 1

Model inputs for the PPT model for different settings

Input nameModel variable (supplementary material contains equations)Johannesburg4 7Cotono,15–17Laos1Free State2Comments/range and source for biological parameters
NG biological parameters:
Duration of NG with existing treatment in monthsMales1/μn02.61.54.33.13–9 months23
Females1/μn12.61.59.35.0
CT biological parameters:
Duration of CT with existing treatment in monthsMales1/μc0Assumed to be quarter of female CT duration2–4 months23
Females1/μc17.73.4228.36–24 months23 28
HD biological parameters:
Duration of HD with existing treatment in monthsMales1/μhd0NANANA2.11–3 months31 32
Females1/μhd1NANANA1.2
HIV biological inputs:
Probability of HIV transmission per sex actMale to femaleβh00.00680.00420.0080.004633–35but scaled up
Female to maleβh10.00610.00140.0070.0031
Behavioural parameters:
Number of clients per FSW per monthn1325086
Number of FSWs per client per monthn0561.3∼1Estimated in fitting
% of sex acts where a condom is usedf87.5%79.5%82%3% to 34% (reached)
Number of FSWsN130001900660750
Number of clientsN0Estimated by multiplying number of FSWs by factor n1/n0No data
Baseline epidemiological data:
Prevalence of CT in FSWs14.5%5%26%>14%
Prevalence of NG in FSWs15%22%15%>17%
Prevalence of HD in FSWs0%0%No data∼5%
Prevalence of HIV in FSWs60%∼40%<1%50% (no data)
Prevalence of HIV in CLs38% (STI clinic clients)∼9%0.25% (no data)23% (no data)
Data on PPT intervention undertaken:
Year PPT intervention started2000200120041996
Coverage of FSWs reached by PPT intervention280 (∼10%)136 (∼7%)∼80%407 (54%)
Average duration between PPT treatment visits in months (Note: FSWs will still obtain a single PPT dose if they never return for another visit)1/ω211.5–21
Follow-up period in months12939
Prevalence of NG among FSWs at follow-up∼ 5%13%7.9%*7%§
Prevalence of CT amongst FSWs at follow-up∼5%7.5%12.3%*3%§
Prevalence of HD amongst FSWs at follow-up0%0%No data<1%§
  • All model inputs that are assumed to be constant across settings are not shown here but can be seen in supplementary table 1.

  • * Post-intervention STI prevalence data included FSWs that had not received PPT before and so the prevalence data was assumed to be a proxy for all FSWs, not just those reached by the PPT intervention.

  • The STI durations were varied to fit the models to the observed STI prevalences in different settings and is a measure of the background level of STI treatment.

  • No estimate for baseline prevalence and so the prevalence among women coming for their first visit was used as a lower bound because this is averaged over the whole evaluation.

  • § No estimate at 9 months and so the prevalence among women coming for their third visit (median number of visits per women) was used as an approximation.

  • CT, Chlamydia trachomatis; FSW, female sex worker; HD, Haemophilus ducreyi; NG, Neisseria gonorrhoeae; PPT, periodic presumptive treatment; STI, sexually transmitted infection.