Input name | Model variable (supplementary material contains equations) | Johannesburg4 7 | Cotono,15–17 | Laos1 | Free State2 | Comments/range and source for biological parameters | |
NG biological parameters:† | |||||||
Duration of NG with existing treatment in months | Males | 1/μn0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 3–9 months23 |
Females | 1/μn1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | ||
CT biological parameters: | |||||||
Duration of CT with existing treatment in months | Males | 1/μc0 | Assumed to be quarter of female CT duration | 2–4 months23 | |||
Females | 1/μc1 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 22 | 8.3 | 6–24 months23 28 | |
HD biological parameters: | |||||||
Duration of HD with existing treatment in months | Males | 1/μhd0 | NA | NA | NA | 2.1 | 1–3 months31 32 |
Females | 1/μhd1 | NA | NA | NA | 1.2 | ||
HIV biological inputs: | |||||||
Probability of HIV transmission per sex act | Male to female | βh0 | 0.0068 | 0.0042 | 0.008 | 0.0046 | 33–35but scaled up |
Female to male | βh1 | 0.0061 | 0.0014 | 0.007 | 0.0031 | ||
Behavioural parameters: | |||||||
Number of clients per FSW per month | n1 | 32 | 50 | 8 | 6 | ||
Number of FSWs per client per month | n0 | 5 | 6 | 1.3 | ∼1 | Estimated in fitting | |
% of sex acts where a condom is used | f | 87.5% | 79.5% | 82% | 3% to 34% (reached) | ||
Number of FSWs | N1 | 3000 | 1900 | 660 | 750 | ||
Number of clients | N0 | Estimated by multiplying number of FSWs by factor n1/n0 | No data | ||||
Baseline epidemiological data: | |||||||
Prevalence of CT in FSWs | 14.5% | 5% | 26% | >14%‡ | |||
Prevalence of NG in FSWs | 15% | 22% | 15% | >17%‡ | |||
Prevalence of HD in FSWs | 0% | 0% | No data | ∼5%‡ | |||
Prevalence of HIV in FSWs | 60% | ∼40% | <1% | 50% (no data) | |||
Prevalence of HIV in CLs | 38% (STI clinic clients) | ∼9% | 0.25% (no data) | 23% (no data) | |||
Data on PPT intervention undertaken: | |||||||
Year PPT intervention started | 2000 | 2001 | 2004 | 1996 | |||
Coverage of FSWs reached by PPT intervention | 280 (∼10%) | 136 (∼7%) | ∼80% | 407 (54%) | |||
Average duration between PPT treatment visits in months (Note: FSWs will still obtain a single PPT dose if they never return for another visit) | 1/ω | 2 | 1 | 1.5–2 | 1 | ||
Follow-up period in months | 12 | 9 | 3 | 9 | |||
Prevalence of NG among FSWs at follow-up | ∼ 5% | 13% | 7.9%* | 7%§ | |||
Prevalence of CT amongst FSWs at follow-up | ∼5% | 7.5% | 12.3%* | 3%§ | |||
Prevalence of HD amongst FSWs at follow-up | 0% | 0% | No data | <1%§ |
All model inputs that are assumed to be constant across settings are not shown here but can be seen in supplementary table 1.
↵* Post-intervention STI prevalence data included FSWs that had not received PPT before and so the prevalence data was assumed to be a proxy for all FSWs, not just those reached by the PPT intervention.
↵† The STI durations were varied to fit the models to the observed STI prevalences in different settings and is a measure of the background level of STI treatment.
↵‡ No estimate for baseline prevalence and so the prevalence among women coming for their first visit was used as a lower bound because this is averaged over the whole evaluation.
↵§ No estimate at 9 months and so the prevalence among women coming for their third visit (median number of visits per women) was used as an approximation.
CT, Chlamydia trachomatis; FSW, female sex worker; HD, Haemophilus ducreyi; NG, Neisseria gonorrhoeae; PPT, periodic presumptive treatment; STI, sexually transmitted infection.