Male-to-female transmission probability | Beta | 0.40 (0.21 to 0.60) | 0.46 (0.30 to 0.62) | 0.16 (0.02 to 0.40) | 0.18 (0.08 to 0.31) | 0.15 (0.03 to 0.34) | 0.22 (0.10 to 0.40) |
Female-to-male transmission probability | Beta | 0.20 (0.11 to 0.31) | 0.23 (0.16 to 0.32) | 0.12 (0.03 to 0.26) | 0.11 (0.03 to 0.31) | 0.04 (0.01 to 0.09) | 0.05 (0.02 to 0.10) |
Proportion of cases becoming symptomatic: |
Men | Beta | 0.90 (0.78 to 0.97) | 0.88 (0.78 to 0.96) | 0.30 (0.06 to 0.63) | 0.33 (0.07 to 0.60) | 0.40 (0.21 to 0.60) | 0.38 (0.20 to 0.58) |
Women | Beta | 0.40 (0.13 to 0.71) | 0.35 (0.12 to 0.64) | 0.15 (0.03 to 0.34) | 0.17 (0.04 to 0.31) | 0.30 (0.13 to 0.51) | 0.29 (0.12 to 0.48) |
Average duration of untreated infection (weeks) |
Symptomatic men | Gamma | 15.0 (6.9 to 26.3)* | 17.8 (10.0 to 27.3)* | 16.0 (4.4 to 35.1)† | 17.0 (4.5 to 35.1)† | 2.0 (0.9 to 3.6) | 2.0 (0.8 to 3.7) |
Symptomatic women | Gamma | 15.0 (6.9 to 26.3)* | 14.8 (10.1 to 21.2)* | – | – | 15.0 (6.9 to 26.3) | 14.9 (6.7 to 26.7) |
Asymptomatic men | Gamma | – | – | 90 (63 to 122)† | 89 (66 to 117)† | 20.0 (8.7 to 35.9) | 21.2 (11.2 to 34.4) |
Asymptomatic women | Gamma | – | – | – | – | 150 (69 to 263) | 157 (87 to 247) |
Average duration of immunity (weeks) | Gamma | 52 (14 to 114) | 68 (40 to 113) | 520 (205 to 979) | 490 (277 to 773) | 52 (14 to 114) | 63 (22 to 121) |
Proportion of cases immune after treatment | Uniform | 0 | – | 0.50 (0.03 to 0.98) | 0.72 (0.21 to 0.99) | 0 | – |
Proportion of cases correctly treated before introduction of syndromic management | Beta | 0.70 (0.49 to 0.87) | 0.71 (0.53 to 0.86) | 0.70 (0.49 to 0.87) | 0.71 (0.51 to 0.88) | 0.40 (0.13 to 0.71) | 0.41 (0.14 to 0.68) |
Standard deviation of study effects | Gamma | 0.30 (0.08 to 0.66) | 0.30 (0.17 to 0.44) | 0.30 (0.08 to 0.66) | 0.33 (0.21 to 0.47) | 0.30 (0.08 to 0.66) | 0.53 (0.33 to 0.75) |