Prior and posterior distributions for syphilis
| Parameter | Prior distribution | Prior (mean, 95% CI) | Posterior (mean, 95% CI) |
| Male-to-female transmission probability | Beta | 0.18 (0.09 to 0.29) | 0.17 (0.12 to 0.23) |
| Female-to-male transmission probability | Beta | 0.15 (0.07 to 0.26) | 0.19 (0.13 to 0.27) |
| Average time (in weeks) from | |||
| Primary to secondary | Gamma | 6.6 (3.3 to 11.1) | 6.1 (3.0 to 10.7) |
| Secondary to latent | Gamma | 15.6 (8.8 to 24.4) | 14.9 (9.1 to 22.1) |
| Latent to spontaneous resolution | Gamma | 520 (269 to 853) | 572 (355 to 883) |
| Recovery in early disease to seronegativity | Gamma | 26.0 (12.8 to 43.9) | 23.0 (12.8 to 42.6) |
| Recovery in latent infection to seronegativity | Gamma | 52.0 (25.5 to 87.7) | 51.5 (25.5 to 84.4) |
| Proportion of primary cases seronegative | |||
| immediately after successful treatment | Beta | 0.40 (0.21 to 0.60) | 0.42 (0.24 to 0.60) |
| Proportion of cases correctly treated before | |||
| syndromic management | Beta | 0.70 (0.49 to 0.87) | 0.76 (0.62 to 0.90) |
| Standard deviation of study effects | Gamma | 0.30 (0.08 to 0.66) | 0.38 (0.28 to 0.50) |