Variable | Coefficient | SE |

Intercept | 1.3478 | 0.1563 |

ln (percentage of children who are expected double orphans) | 0.7539 | 0.0283 |

Children's age | −0.02108 | 0.0131 |

ln (HIV prevalence in year t−1) | −0.1506 | −0.0540 |

Children's age×ln (HIV prevalence in year t−1) | 0.007225 | 0.0050 |

ln (HIV prevalence in year t−12) | 0.09887 | 0.0113 |

Intercountry variance of the intercept | 0.0196 | 0.0059 |

Intersurvey variance of the intercept | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |

Extra-Poisson variation | 1.7701 | 0.2071 |