Prior biological model input parameters sampled at the fitting stage to obtain the posterior parameter sets for Mysore and Belgaum for the Avahan impact model (all durations are in months)
| Types of model input | Definition of model input | Model inputs | Reference for model input value |
| Duration of infection stages | Average duration of Ng/Ct: | Reviewed in Korenromp et al.16 Also depends on level of STI treatment. | |
| Males | 2–5 | ||
| Females | 2–12 | ||
| Female sex workers (FSWs) | 0.5–3 | ||
| Average duration of syphilis stages: | Available data was reviewed by Boily et al and Garnett et al8 15 | ||
| Primary (no treatment) | 1.51 | ||
| Secondary (no treatment) | 3–4.5 | ||
| Primary and secondary stage (with treatment) | 1–5 | ||
| Latent phase (including treatment) | 2–24 | ||
| Time between potential recurrences | 6 | ||
| Immune/resistant phase | 12–60 | ||
| Average duration of HSV-2 stages: |
| ||
| Primary stage | 0.36–0.66 | ||
| Symptomatic recurrence | 0.1–0.16 | ||
| Rate of HSV-2 symptomatic recurrences while: | |||
| HIV negative | 0.09–0.41 | Corey et al, Diamond et al, Benedetti et al, Lafferty et al and Kim et al18 20 21 24 28–30 | |
| HIV positive | 1–2×HIV negative rate | Using Schacker et al and Conant et al31 32 | |
| Average duration of HIV stages: | Based on Grover and Shivraj, and Kumarasamy et al33 34 | ||
| Initial HIV high viraemia phase | 4–6 | ||
| Between initial high viraemia and pre-AIDS | 70–90.5 | ||
| Pre-AIDS high viraemia phase | 6–18 | ||
| Transmission probabilities | Probability of HIV transmission per sex act: | Reviewed in Holmes et al.40 67 | |
| Male to female: | 0.0006–0.0011 | ||
| Female to male | 0.0001–0.0014 | ||
| Sexual transmission multiplicative cofactor: | |||
| Initial high viraemia phase | 4.5–18.8 | ||
| Pre-AIDS high viraemia phase | 4.5–11.9 | ||
| Probability of Ng/Ct transmission per sex act | 0.05–0.2 | Reviewed by Holmes et al, Hooper et al40 67 | |
| Probability of syphilis transmission per sex act (male to female): | 0.1–0.3 | Reviewed by Garnett et al15 | |
| Ratio of transmission probabilities female to male:male to female | 0.33–1.0 | ||
| Probability of HSV-2 transmission: | |||
| Latent/asymptomatic shedding stage (male to female) | 0.0005–0.002 | Using Wald et al and Corey et al37 38 | |
| RR male to female: female to male transmission | 2–5 | ||
| Primary stage | 2–6×6.7–25 times asymptomatic/latent transmission probability | From Kim et al, Wald et al and Corey et al30 37 38 | |
| Symptomatic recurrence stage | 1–3×6.7–25 times latent/asymptomatic transmission probability | Wald et al, Kim et al, and Mertz et al25 30 39–41 | |
| Cofactors for HIV | Average Ng/Ct cofactor per sex act for increasing susceptibility to HIV | 1.2–2.5 | Using Rottingen et al13 |
| Average syphilis cofactor per sex act for increasing susceptibility to HIV | 2.1–3.3 | ||
| HSV-2 cofactor per sex act for increasing HIV infectivity: | |||
| Primary and symptomatic recurrence phases | 1.27–2.57×1–2 | ||
| Asymptomatic/latent phase | 0.27–1.57×0.04–0.15×2–3 | ||
| HSV-2 cofactor per sex act for increasing HIV susceptibility: | Using Schacker et al, Nagot et al, Zuckerman et al, Baeten et al, Celum et al, Dunne et al, Delany et al, Mbopi-Keou et al, Augenbraun et al, LeGoff et al and Serwadda et al31 42–54 and Quinn et al55 to convert from differences in HIV viral load | ||
| Asymptomatic/latent phase | 1–4.75 | ||
| Primary phase and symptomatic recurrence phase | 1.5–4.0 times asymptomatic cofactor | ||
| Cofactors for HSV-2 | HIV cofactor per partnership for increasing HSV-2 infectivity: | Using Celum et al, Corey et al, Freeman et al and Watson-Jones et al45 56–58 and converting to probability using Quinn et al55 | |
| Primary phase | 1–2.5 | ||
| Asymptomatic/latent phase | 2–4 | ||
| Symptomatic recurrence phase | Same as primary | ||
| Condom efficacies | Condom efficacy per sex act for HIV | 80% to 95% | Pinkerton et al59 60 |
| Condom efficacy per sex act for HSV-2 and syphilis | 40% to 70% | Based on Wald et al, Oberle et al, Dobbins et al, Obasi et al and Huerta et al37 61–65 | |
| Condom efficacy per sex act for Ng/Ct | 60% to 90% | Based on Holmes et al, Hooper et al, Austin et al, Barlow, Joesof et al, Sanchez et al, Gaydos et al, Niccolai et al and Zenilman et al 66–74 | |
Ct, Chlamydia trachomatis; HSV, herpes simplex virus; Neisseria gonorrhoeae; STI, sexually transmitted infection.