Prior behavioural model input parameters sampled at the fitting stage to obtain the posterior parameter sets for Mysore and Belgaum for the Avahan impact model
| Types of model input | Definition of model input | Mysore | Belgaum |
| Demography | |||
| Population size and demographic inputs | Initial size of sexually active population | 278000 (M) | 268000 (M) |
| 268000 (F) | 257000(F) | ||
| Fraction of female general population sexually active | 75% to 95% | 77% to 95% | |
| Fraction of male general population sexually active | Determined by available partnerships | Determined by available partnerships | |
| Average time spent sexually active | 41.3 years (M) | 41.5 years (M) | |
| 42.4 years (F) | 42.2 years (F) | ||
| Entry rate into sexually active population per year | 12000 (M) | 12000 (M) | |
| 11000 (F) | 11000 (F) | ||
| Migration of female sex workers (FSWs) | Proportion of FSWs migrating | 0.3–0.44 | 0.05–0.20 |
| Multiplicative cofactor increasing prevalence of HIV among clients in sites to which FSWs migrate | 1–2 | 1–2 | |
| Sexual behaviour | |||
| Long-term partnerships of FSWs and clients | Percentage of clients currently married/cohabiting by duration: | ||
| 0–1 years and 2–4 years | 68% | 43% to 59% | |
| 5–9 years and 10+ years | 68% | 83% to 93% | |
| Percentage of FSWs currently married/cohabiting by duration: | |||
| 0–1 years | 38.2% to 57.2% | 9.8% to 40.3% | |
| 2–4 years | 39.9% to 54.9% | 11.6% to 39.9% | |
| 5–9 years | 28.6% to 50.4% | 21.5% to 48.6% | |
| 10+ years | 23.1% to 46/7% | 5.3% to 20.7% | |
| Percentage of FSWs currently married/cohabiting by typology: | |||
| Home based | 25.9% to 54.1% | 11.4% to 29.7% | |
| Brothel based | 8.8% to 66.9% | 13.1% to 28.9% | |
| Street based | 39.3% to 49.3% | 9.0% to 43.9% | |
| Average frequency of sex acts with married/cohabiting partner for FSWs/clients (per month) | 5.9–8.2 (clients) | 9.5–11.7 (clients) | |
| 5.9–8.2 (FSWs) | 5.6–9.5 (FSWs) | ||
| Duration of long-term partnerships (cohabiting/married) if FSW, years | 8.6–13.0 | 16.6–21.7 | |
| Duration of long-term partnerships between clients and low-risk females, years | 20–30 | 20–30 | |
| FSW sexual behaviour | Average weekly frequency of clients for: | ||
| Home-based FSWs duration 0–1 years | 2.5–5.1 | 5.5–26.1 | |
| Home-based FSWs duration 2–4 years | 3.8–7.9 | 1.8–10.3 | |
| Home-based FSWs duration 5–9 years | 2.8–8.2 | 5.7–10.0 | |
| Home-based FSWs duration 10+ years | 4.6–14.6 | 7.0–11.0 | |
| Brothel-based FSWs duration 0–1 years | 15–25 | 6.3–34.2 | |
| Brothel-based FSWs duration 2–4 years | 12–45 | 13.5–26.2 | |
| Brothel-based FSWs duration 5–9 years | 4–15 | 13.1–25.3 | |
| Brothel-based FSWs duration 10+ years | 5.2–16.6 | 8.9–17.9 | |
| Street-based FSWs duration 0–1 years | 6.5–9.2 | 4.8–13.6 | |
| Street-based FSWs duration 2–4 years | 7.5–9.4 | 1.1–13.0 | |
| Street-based FSWs duration 5–9 years | 7.2–9.8 | 2.4–10.2 | |
| Street-based FSWs duration 10+ years | 6.5–9.1 | 3.8–10.2 | |
| Number of sex acts with each client | 1–3 | 1–3 | |
| Average duration of sex work in months for: | |||
| Home-based FSWs | 35–69 | 160–224 | |
| Brothel-based FSWs | 49–189 | 94–127 | |
| Street-based FSWs | 53–66 | 138–251 | |
| Client sexual behaviour | Number of FSWs visited/month if: | ||
| Below median activity level | 0.8–1.2 | 0.8–1.2 | |
| Above median activity level | 2.9–3.8 | 2.32–2.78 | |
| Average duration of being client in months if below/above median activity level | 84–240/84–240 | 83–119/90–143 | |
| Proportions of FSWs/clients by each stratification | Percentage of female population who are FSWs | 0.3% to 1.4% | 0.2% to 1.1% |
| Percentage of male population who are clients | Determined by number of FSW partnerships | Determined by number of FSW partnerships | |
| Proportion of FSWs that are: | |||
| Home based | 0.08–0.15 | 0.23–0.50 | |
| Brothel based | 0.00–0.01 | 0.31–0.61 | |
| Street based | 0.85–0.91 | 0.11–0.24 | |
| Proportion of male clients who visit FSWs: | |||
| Below median level (ie, low activity clients) | 0.5 | 0.58–0.69 | |
| Above median level (ie, high activity clients) | 0.5 | 0.31–0.42 | |
| Condom use | |||
| Condom use in main partnerships | Average consistency of condom use between married/cohabiting partners per sex act. | 4.3% to 10.3% | 5.2% to 12.7% |
| Condom use between FSWs and clients | Fraction of sex acts with occasional clients for which a condom is used, by FSWs who: | ||
| Report ‘always’ using | 0.81–0.93 | 0.81–0.93 | |
| Report often/sometimes using Report ’never’ using | 0.54–0.67 | 0.54–0.67 | |
| 0.07–0.38 | 0.07–0.38 | ||
| Fraction of FSWs who are consistent condom users: | |||
| At the start of the HIV epidemic in India | 0–0.1 | 0–0.1 | |
| Under H0 and H1: | |||
| At first time point | 0.111–0.228 | 0.286–0.422 | |
| At second time point | 0.233–0.395 | 0.759–0.855 | |
| Under H1, at time of IBBA R2 | 0.615–0.729 | 0.855–0.926 | |
| Under H2: | |||
| At first time point | 0.1–0.220 | 0.1–0.220 | |
| At second time point | 0.321–0.416 | 0.321–0.416 | |
| At time of IBBA R2 | 0.777–0.847 | 0.777–0.847 | |
| Fraction of FSWs who report ‘sometimes/often’ using condoms with occasional clients at IBBA R2 | 0.245–0.367 | 0.074–0.145 | |
| Dates | Start of HIV epidemic in India | 1976–1985 | 1976–1985 |
| Under H0 and H1: | |||
| At first time point | 2002 | 2002 | |
| At second time point | 2004 | 2005 | |
| At time of IBBA R2 | 2007 | 2008 | |
| Under H2: | |||
| At first time point | 2004 | 2004 | |
| At second time point | 2006 | 2006 | |
| At time of IBBA R2 | 2008 | 2008 | |
FSW, female sex worker; H, hypothesis; IBBA, integrated behavioural and biological assessments; R, round.