Fractions of HIV, HSV-2 and syphilis infections among infected couples originating from the husband
| Number of infected couples | Ratio of transmission risks (female-to-male to male-to-female) | Inflation factor for excess mortality and divorce rates in concordant couples (HIV only) | Risk of male-to-female transmission of STI | Fraction of infected couples in which the male was the first infected partner* | ||||
| STI† | Fem+ | Male − | Fem − | Male + | Fem + | Male + | N | r | q | p (95% CI) | f (95% CI) |
| HIV | 25 | 121 | 54 | 200 | 0.25 | 1 | 30.0% (23.2% to 36.9%) | 86.5% (81.5% to 91.5%) |
| 0.50 | 1 | 29.1% (22.5% to 35.7%) | 85.4% (80.0% to 90.7%) | |||||
| 0.75 | 1 | 28.1% (21.7% to 34.5%) | 84.2% (78.5% to 89.9%) | |||||
| 0.25 | 1.2 | 34.0% (26.9% to 41.2%) | 87.0% (82.2% to 91.9%) | |||||
| 0.50 | 1.2 | 33.1% (26.0% to 40.2%) | 85.8% (80.6% to 91.0%) | |||||
| 0.75 | 1.2 | 32.0% (25.1% to 38.9%) | 84.4% (78.8% to 90.0%) | |||||
| 0.25 | 2 | 46.4% (38.3% to 54.5%) | 88.9% (84.7% to 93.1%) | |||||
| 0.50 | 2 | 45.4% (37.4% to 53.4%) | 87.3% (82.5% to 92.0%) | |||||
| 0.75 | 2 | 44.1% (36.2% to 52.1%) | 85.3% (79.9% to 90.7%) | |||||
| HSV-2 | 26 | 23 | 38 | 87 | 0.143 | 1.000 | 60.7% (48.2% to 73.2%) | 67.3% (56.7% to 77.8%) |
| 0.286 | 1.000 | 58.7% (46.2% to 71.3%) | 64.1% (52.6% to 75.6%) | |||||
| 0.571 | 1.000 | 53.6% (41.2% to 65.9%) | 56.9% (43.6% to 70.3%) | |||||
| Syphilis | 4 | 12 | 3 | 19 | 0.500 | 1.000 | 17.9% (0.0% to 36.9%) | 76.9% (56.3% to 97.4%) |
| 1.000 | 1.000 | 15.8% (0.0% to 32.8%) | 75.0% (52.8% to 97.1%) | |||||
| 2.000 | 1.000 | 12.3% (0.0% to 25.3%) | 72.0% (48.6% to 95.5%) | |||||
Number of observed concordant HIV-infected couples for HIV was multiplied by 1, 1.2 and 2, respectively, to take into account a possible, but uncertain, excess mortality among these couples compared with HIV discordant couples.
The parameters r and q, as well as the numbers of the three types of infected couples are inputs, while p and f are estimated using our model.
* Summary of results from weighted data from NFHS-3: HIV (q=1, range of f= 82.2–85.2); HIV (q=1.2, range of f=82.2–85.7); HIV (q=2, range of f=82.2–87.4).
† HIV data from NFHS-3; HSV-2 and syphilis data from CGHR SRS health check-up; each row in the table is a separate model fit. Only the last two columns (p, f) are model outputs.
CGHR, Centre for Global Health Research; f, fraction of infected couples in which the male was the first infected partner; Fem − | Male +, female negative male positive; Fem + | Male −, female positive, male negative; Fem + | Male +, female positive, male positive; HSV, herpes simplex virus; N, number of infected couples; NFHS-3, National Family Health Survey-3; p, risk of male-to-female transmission of STI; q, inflation factor for excess mortality and divorce rates in concordant couples (HIV only); r, ratio of transmission risks (female-to-male to male-to-female); SRS, Sample Registration System; STI, sexually transmitted infection.