Table 1

Comparisons between the classic Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model and the flexible model: coverage and width of 95% prediction intervals and mean absolute errors of the clinic-specific posterior median for 10 countries with generalised epidemics

	Coverage of prediction interval		Width of prediction interval		Mean absolute error
	Classic	Flexible	Classic	Flexible	Classic	Flexible
1 Botswana	0.556	0.556	0.106	0.125	0.048	0.052
2 Ethiopia	0.365	0.673	0.086	0.079	0.054	0.027
3 Gabon	0.667	0.889	0.084	0.111	0.027	0.034
4 Kenya	0.440	0.440	0.052	0.053	0.029	0.029
5 Ghana	0.852	0.930	0.041	0.040	0.009	0.008
6 Namibia	0.766	0.915	0.127	0.132	0.042	0.032
7 Rwanda	0.800	0.800	0.057	0.058	0.017	0.017
8 Tanzania	0.784	0.829	0.086	0.077	0.028	0.024
9 Uganda	0.407	0.778	0.047	0.070	0.025	0.022
10 Zambia	0.657	0.886	0.092	0.118	0.032	0.028