Comparisons between the clinic-specific posterior median and the clinic data: coverage and width of 95% CI, mean absolute error (MAE) and mean error (ME).
| Insample fit | Out-of-sample projection | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic EPP | r-Trend model | Classic EPP | r-Trend model | |
| Coverage | 86.7% | 87.7% | 76.5% | 80.1% |
| Width | 0.071 | 0.070 | 0.097 | 0.077 |
| MAE | 0.017 | 0.016 | 0.029 | 0.023 |
| ME | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.008 | −0.002 |
| Computing time | 1.28 h | 1.76 h | 1.34 h | 1.50 h |
The results of insample fit are evaluated through the entire data period and the results of out-of-sample projection are evaluated in the 5-year projection period.
EPP, Estimation and Projection Package.