Table 1

ART Impact Scenarios 

ScenarioProbability of HIV transmission while on ART (per partnership)Earliest HIV stage of ART enrolmentModelled change in sexual partner turnover?
10.5% F->M, 1.0% M->F3 (rate of initiation varies)No
22.0% F->M, 4.0% M->F3 (rate of initiation varies)No
30.5% F->M, 1.0% M->F1 (rate of initiation varies)No
42.0% F->M, 4.0% M->F1 (rate of initiation varies)No
50.5% F->M, 1.0% M->F2 (rate of initiation=0.9/year)Yes
62.0% F->M, 4.0% M->F2 (rate of initiation=0.9/year)Yes
  • ART, antiretroviral therapy.