Table 3

Key predictions of the modes of transmission model for Morocco

PopulationHIV prevalence (%)Number of PLHIVHIV incidencePercentage of total incidence (%)Incidence among malesIncidence among femalesIncidence of females/total (%)HIV incidence/person-year (%)Endemic prevalence (forecast) (%)*
 Sexual partners of IDUs1.0093280.8232589.60.313.54
 Partners of clients0.258742687.780268100.00.080.91
 Female partners of MSM1.0089270.79027100.00.303.52
Casual heterosexual sex0.222255822.39721113.00.010.10
 Partners of casual heterosexual sex0.114981524.40214998.50.030.40
Low-risk heterosexual sex0.08843190626.2910180588.90.010.11
No risk heterosexual sex0.03143000.00
Medical injections0.1130.102250.00.000.00
Blood transfusions0.0300.010050.00.000.01
Total adult population0.1119 6123446100.01641180552.40.020.23
  • *Forecast assuming the current HIV incidence as predicted by the MoT model.

  • PLHIV, people living with HIV/AIDS; IDU, injecting drug user; FSW, female sex worker; MSM, men who have sex with men