Relative increase in TV prevalence from t=0 (%); median [IQR]
Scenario 1
 Years after changes to cervical screening programme5101520
 HR HPV prevalence fixed1.9 [1.6, 2.3]3.2 [2.3, 4.3]4.9 [3.3, 7.8]6.8 [4.4, 11.5]
 HR HPV prevalence continues to decrease at current rate1.9 [1.6, 2.3]3.4 [2.5, 4.6]5.5 [3.7, 9.0]7.8 [5.2, 13.5]
Scenario 2
 Years after changes to cervical screening programme5101520
1.4 [1.2, 1.5]1.9 [1.6, 2.3]2.5 [2.0, 3.3]3.0 [2.4, 4.5]
Scenario 3
 Years after changes to cervical screening programme5101520
 HR HPV prevalence fixed1.9 [1.6, 2.4]3.4 [2.5, 4.6]5.6 [3.6, 8.8]8.1 [4.9, 12.8]
 HR HPV prevalence continues to decrease at current rate1.9 [1.6, 2.4]3.5 [2.5, 4.8]6.0 [3.8, 9.5]8.8 [5.4, 14.5]

  • *Median baseline prevalence for the 50 selected simulations was 0.40% (IQR [0.10%, 0.78%]). Absolute increase in TV prevalence is calculated as the difference between the individual prevalence at t=x (where x=5, 10, 15 or 20 years) and the individual prevalence at baseline for each of the 50 selected simulations, and for each of the three scenarios; the median and IQR are then calculated accordingly. Similarly, relative increase in TV prevalence is calculated as the individual prevalence at t=x divided by the individual baseline prevalence for each of the 50 simulations at a given time point. For this reason, the relative increase in TV prevalence does not exactly correspond to the median prevalence at t=x (0.40%+median absolute increase in TV prevalence at t=x) divided by the median baseline prevalence (0.40% at t=0).

  • HPV, human papillomavirus; HR, high risk; TV, Trichomonas vaginalis.