Table 1

Absolute and relative increases in TV prevalence from baseline at t=5, 10, 15 and 20 years, for scenarios 1, 2 and 3*

Absolute increase in TV prevalence from t=0 (%); median [IQR]
Scenario 1
 Years after changes to cervical screening programme5101520
 HR HPV prevalence fixed0.37 [0.08, 0.62]0.95 [0.23, 1.83]1.74 [0.37, 3.74]2.41 [0.60, 4.25]
 HR HPV prevalence continues to decrease at current rate0.38 [0.08, 0.63]1.01 [0.25, 1.97]1.93 [0.43, 3.81]2.79 [0.77, 5.01]
Scenario 2
 Years after changes to cervical screening programme5101520
 HR HPV prevalence fixed, or continues to decrease at current rate0.18 [0.04, 0.34]0.42 [0.08, 0.77]0.66 [0.13, 1.26]0.91 [0.21, 1.81]
Scenario 3
 Years after changes to cervical screening programme5101520
 HR HPV prevalence fixed0.43 [0.09, 0.68]1.01 [0.25, 2.02]1.98 [0.43, 3.68]2.79 [0.72, 4.72]
 HR HPV prevalence continues to decrease at current rate0.44 [0.09, 0.69]1.04 [0.27, 2.10]2.08 [0.46, 3.96]2.99 [0.83, 5.20]