Association between HIV infection and HSV-2 infection in 100 simulated cross-sectional observational studies, assuming that HSV-2 seropositivity increases the risk of HIV acquisition by 2.5-fold (relative risk=2.5)2–4
| Studies | Sample size | Crude OR | Adjusted OR | Pooled OR across all simulations* | ||||
| N | n† | Range | Range | Mean (95% CI) | ||||
| Baseline scenario‡ | Crude OR (95% CI) | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 8.05 (7.14 to 9.07) | |||
| Adjusted OR (95% CI) | For number of sexual partners over the last year | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 3.42–9.60 | 7.00 (6.21 to 7.90) | ||
| For number of lifetime sexual partners | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 1.89–6.03 | 3.76 (3.32 to 4.25) | |||
| For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 1.96–5.88 | 3.68 (3.25 to 4.17) | |||
| For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 2.00–9.49 | 4.71 (4.15 to 5.35) | |||
| Under-reporting§ | 50% under-reporting | Crude OR (95% CI) | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 8.05 (7.14 to 9.07) | ||
| Adjusted OR (95% CI) | For number of sexual partners over the last year | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 3.51–9.91 | 7.13 (6.32 to 8.05) | ||
| For number of lifetime sexual partners | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 2.45–7.01 | 4.85 (4.29 to 5.49) | |||
| For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 2.49–6.92 | 4.61 (4.08 to 5.22) | |||
| For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 2.36–10.71 | 5.72 (5.04 to 6.49) | |||
| 25% under- reporting | Crude OR (95% CI) | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 8.05 (7.14 to 9.07) | |||
| Adjusted OR (95% CI) | For number of sexual partners over the last year | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 3.60–9.82 | 7.09 (6.28 to 8.00) | ||
| For number of lifetime sexual partners | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 2.90–8.20 | 5.01 (4.43 to 5.66) | |||
| For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 2.82–8.07 | 4.73 (4.19 to 5.35) | |||
| For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 3.09–12.3 | 5.86 (5.16 to 6.65) | |||
| 10% under- reporting | Crude OR (95% CI) | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 8.05 (7.14 to 9.07) | |||
| Adjusted OR (95% CI) | For number of sexual partners over the last year | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 3.51–9.69 | 7.12 (6.31 to 8.03) | ||
| For number of lifetime sexual partners | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 2.69–7.69 | 5.03 (4.45 to 5.69) | |||
| For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 2.75–7.50 | 4.77 (4.22 to 5.39) | |||
| For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1438 | 3.44–9.95 | 3.22–12.09 | 5.27 (5.23 to 6.73) | |||
| Miscapture¶ | 50% miscapture | Crude OR (95% CI) | 100 | 719 | 0.00–19.69 | 4.89 (4.22 to 5.65) | ||
| Adjusted OR (95% CI) | For number of sexual partners over the last year | 100 | 719 | 0.00–19.69 | 0.00–19.69 | 4.56 (3.93 to 5.28) | ||
| For number of lifetime sexual partners | 100 | 719 | 0.00–19.69 | 0.00–17.93 | 3.03 (2.60 to 3.53) | |||
| For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 719 | 0.00–19.69 | 0.00–17.72 | 3.06 (2.62 to 3.56) | |||
| For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 719 | 0.00–19.69 | 0.00–21.31 | 3.42 (2.93 to 4.00) | |||
| 25% miscapture | Crude OR (95% CI) | 100 | 1079 | 2.61–8.34 | 5.04 (4.44 to 5.72) | |||
| Adjusted OR (95% CI) | For number of sexual partners over the last year | 100 | 1079 | 2.61–8.34 | 2.44–9.00 | 4.75 (4.18 to 5.40) | ||
| For number of lifetime sexual partners | 100 | 1079 | 2.61–8.34 | 1.11–6.95 | 2.86 (2.50 to 3.26) | |||
| For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1079 | 2.61–8.34 | 1.13–7.00 | 2.88 (2.51 to 3.29) | |||
| For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1079 | 2.61–8.34 | 1.57–8.89 | 3.32 (2.90 to 3.81) | |||
| 10% miscapture | Crude OR (95% CI) | 100 | 1294 | 3.04–9.25 | 5.97 (5.28 to 6.74) | |||
| Adjusted OR (95% CI) | For number of sexual partners over the last year | 100 | 1294 | 3.04–9.25 | 2.93–9.28 | 5.50 (4.86 to 6.22) | ||
| For number of lifetime sexual partners | 100 | 1294 | 3.04–9.25 | 1.42–5.70 | 3.12 (2.74 to 3.54) | |||
| For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1294 | 3.04–9.25 | 1.40–5.76 | 3.09 (2.72 to 3.51) | |||
| For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime | 100 | 1294 | 3.04–9.25 | 1.77–8.38 | 3.76 (3.30 to 4.29) | |||
*Meta-analyses were conducted using a DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model.
†Average sample size of each cross-sectional observational study.
‡Sample was drawn randomly from the simulated population.
§Sample was drawn randomly from the simulated population, but after assuming under-reporting of the number of sexual partners over the last year.
¶Sample was drawn randomly from the simulated population, but after excluding individuals with the largest number of sexual partners.
HSV-2, herpes simplex virus type 2.