Table 2

Association between HIV infection and HSV-2 infection in 100 simulated cross-sectional observational studies, assuming that HSV-2 seropositivity increases the risk of HIV acquisition by 2.5-fold (relative risk=2.5)2–4

StudiesSample sizeCrude ORAdjusted ORPooled OR across all simulations*
Nn†RangeRangeMean (95% CI)
Baseline scenario‡Crude OR (95% CI)10014383.44–9.958.05 (7.14 to 9.07)
Adjusted OR (95% CI)For number of sexual partners over the last year10014383.44–9.953.42–9.607.00 (6.21 to 7.90)
For number of lifetime sexual partners10014383.44–9.951.89–6.033.76 (3.32 to 4.25)
For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10014383.44–9.951.96–5.883.68 (3.25 to 4.17)
For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10014383.44–9.952.00–9.494.71 (4.15 to 5.35)
Under-reporting§50% under-reportingCrude OR (95% CI)10014383.44–9.958.05 (7.14 to 9.07)
Adjusted OR (95% CI)For number of sexual partners over the last year10014383.44–9.953.51–9.917.13 (6.32 to 8.05)
For number of lifetime sexual partners10014383.44–9.952.45–7.014.85 (4.29 to 5.49)
For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10014383.44–9.952.49–6.924.61 (4.08 to 5.22)
For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10014383.44–9.952.36–10.715.72 (5.04 to 6.49)
25% under- reportingCrude OR (95% CI)10014383.44–9.958.05 (7.14 to 9.07)
Adjusted OR (95% CI)For number of sexual partners over the last year10014383.44–9.953.60–9.827.09 (6.28 to 8.00)
For number of lifetime sexual partners10014383.44–9.952.90–8.205.01 (4.43 to 5.66)
For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10014383.44–9.952.82–8.074.73 (4.19 to 5.35)
For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10014383.44–9.953.09–12.35.86 (5.16 to 6.65)
10% under- reportingCrude OR (95% CI)10014383.44–9.958.05 (7.14 to 9.07)
Adjusted OR (95% CI)For number of sexual partners over the last year10014383.44–9.953.51–9.697.12 (6.31 to 8.03)
For number of lifetime sexual partners10014383.44–9.952.69–7.695.03 (4.45 to 5.69)
For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10014383.44–9.952.75–7.504.77 (4.22 to 5.39)
For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10014383.44–9.953.22–12.095.27 (5.23 to 6.73)
Miscapture¶50% miscaptureCrude OR (95% CI)1007190.00–19.694.89 (4.22 to 5.65)
Adjusted OR (95% CI)For number of sexual partners over the last year1007190.00–19.690.00–19.694.56 (3.93 to 5.28)
For number of lifetime sexual partners1007190.00–19.690.00–17.933.03 (2.60 to 3.53)
For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime1007190.00–19.690.00–17.723.06 (2.62 to 3.56)
For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime1007190.00–19.690.00–21.313.42 (2.93 to 4.00)
25% miscaptureCrude OR (95% CI)10010792.61–8.345.04 (4.44 to 5.72)
Adjusted OR (95% CI)For number of sexual partners over the last year10010792.61–8.342.44–9.004.75 (4.18 to 5.40)
For number of lifetime sexual partners10010792.61–8.341.11–6.952.86 (2.50 to 3.26)
For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10010792.61–8.341.13–7.002.88 (2.51 to 3.29)
For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10010792.61–8.341.57–8.893.32 (2.90 to 3.81)
10% miscaptureCrude OR (95% CI)10012943.04–9.255.97 (5.28 to 6.74)
Adjusted OR (95% CI)For number of sexual partners over the last year10012943.04–9.252.93–9.285.50 (4.86 to 6.22)
For number of lifetime sexual partners10012943.04–9.251.42–5.703.12 (2.74 to 3.54)
For number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10012943.04–9.251.40–5.763.09 (2.72 to 3.51)
For age, marriage and the number of sexual partners over the last year and lifetime10012943.04–9.251.77–8.383.76 (3.30 to 4.29)
  • *Meta-analyses were conducted using a DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model.

  • †Average sample size of each cross-sectional observational study.

  • ‡Sample was drawn randomly from the simulated population.

  • §Sample was drawn randomly from the simulated population, but after assuming under-reporting of the number of sexual partners over the last year.

  • ¶Sample was drawn randomly from the simulated population, but after excluding individuals with the largest number of sexual partners.

  • HSV-2, herpes simplex virus type 2.