Table 1
Description of fixed and variable model parameters, and model derived quantities
| Fixed parameters | Value | Source | |
 | Proportion in risk group | 0.93, 0.07 | 13 |
 | Partner change rates | 0.59, 6.57 | 13 |
| γ | Chlamydia clearance rate (per year) | 0.73 | 13 |
| C | County where nvCT emerged | 1–21 | Methods |
| Variable parameters | Prior | Posterior* | |
| ρ | Between-county mixing dependency on distance | unif(0, 2) | 1.10 (0.86 to 1.33) |
| α | Average fraction of new contacts inside of county | unif(0, 1) | 0.74 (0.71 to 0.76) |
| β | Per partnership transmission probability | unif(0, 1) | 0.92 (0.82 to 0.99) |
| ϵ | Assortativity index risk groups | unif(0, 1) | 0.03 (0.00 to 0.13) |
| f | Relative fitness of nvCT compared with wtCT | unif(0.7, 1.3) | 0.95 (0.94 to 0.96) |
| τ | Treatment rate (wtCT) (per year) | unif(0, 3) | 2.22 (1.87 to 2.49) |
| π | Maximal increase of treatment rate τ after October 2006 | unif(0, 0.25) | 0.00 (0.00 to 0.02) |
| Δ | Number of months that the nvCT remained undiscovered until October 2006 | unif(36, 144) | 46 (41 to 56) |
| Model derived quantities | Posterior* |
| Year of emergence | November 2002 (January 2002 to April 2003) |
| Proportion treated† | 0.75 (0.72 to 0.77) |
| R0 wtCT | 1.06 (1.05 to 1.07) |
| R0 nvCT before discovery | 4.06 (3.62 to 4.37) |
| R0 nvCT after discovery | 1.00 (0.99 to 1.02) |
Only results for the model in which we assumed that nvCT emerged in Dalarna are shown.
*Median, 95% CI.
†Computed as
.nvCT, new variant of Chlamydia trachomatis; wtCT, wild-type CT.
