Objective: To estimate the seroincidence of HIV-1 infection in the general adult population of Kigali, Rwanda.
Design: Repeated standardized cross-sectional studies.
Setting: Two urban prenatal clinics.
Patients: A total of 4486 consecutive pregnant women consulting in 1989 and 1990.
Main outcome measures: Prevalence of HIV-1 antibodies.
Results: HIV seropositivity increased by 3-5% annually over this period, indicating that it has not reached a plateau in this sentinel population. The percentage infection rates, calculated using two complementary methods, were 26.2-30.7% in 1990. Extrapolating these results to the general population of Kigali, we estimate that 2300-3800 new infections in young women and 3600-6100 new infections in young men occur annually among the total population of 350,000 in Kigali.
Conclusions: A new HIV infection occurred in an adult every 50-90 min, on average, in Kigali during 1989-1990, while every 6-7 h a baby with maternally acquired HIV infection was born. Our HIV surveillance system, which is based on prenatal sentinel posts, is a useful tool for monitoring the progression of the HIV epidemic in Kigali.
PIP: This study aimed to estimate the seroincidence of HIV-1 infection in the general adult population of Kigali, Rwanda, by examining a total of 4486 consecutive pregnant women consulting in 1989 and 1990 at 2 urban prenatal clinics. Via repeated standardized cross-sectional studies the authors aimed to measure prevalence of HIV-1 antibodies. HIV seropositivity increased by 3-5% annually over this sentinel population. The percentage infection rates, calculated using 2 complementary methods, were 26.2-30.7 in 1990. Extrapolating these results to the general population of Kigali, the authors estimate that 2300-3800 new infections in young women and 3600-6100 infections in young men occur annually among the total population of 350,000 in Kigali. A new HIV infection occurred in an adult every 50 through 90 minutes, on average, in Kigali, during 1989 and 1990, while every 6 to 7 hours a baby with maternally acquired HIV infection was born. This HIV surveillance system, which is based on prenatal sentinel posts, is a useful tool for monitoring the progression of the HIV epidemic in Kigali.